Retail Traders Unlikely Selling Crypto for SpaceX IPO, On-Chain Data Suggests

Recent speculation suggested that retail investors might be liquidating cryptocurrency holdings to invest in the highly anticipated SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO). However, an analysis of on-chain data, including stablecoin movements and exchange flows, indicates that this is unlikely to be a significant trend. While Bitcoin and Ether experienced notable price drops and large volumes moved off exchanges, the patterns do not align with a mass exodus from crypto into the IPO market.

Key facts
| Metric | Observation | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin Outflows | Within normal ranges since February | No clear indication of a rush to cash out of crypto for USD. |
| Bitcoin and Ether Exchange Withdrawals | Significant, among the largest of the year | Consistent with buyers acquiring assets for private wallets, not necessarily a direct response to IPO demand. |
| Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF Redemptions | Record outflows prior to IPO | Indicates institutional selling from ETFs, distinct from retail activity. |

SpaceX's IPO has generated considerable excitement, with up to 30% of its record $75 billion offering being made available to retail investors through platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab. The IPO is offering shares at a valuation of $1.8 trillion, with trading set to begin on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12. The significant allocation to retail investors has fueled speculation about potential shifts in investment portfolios.

Stablecoins, such as USDC and Tether, serve as a primary on-ramp and off-ramp for many crypto traders. When investors convert crypto assets to fiat currency, they often first move to stablecoins. A subsequent redemption of these stablecoins for cash would typically result in decreased stablecoin supply as issuers burn the redeemed tokens. Data assessed by CoinDesk indicates that outflows for USDC and Tether have remained within their typical ranges since February, showing no anomalies that would suggest a large-scale conversion of crypto to fiat for investment purposes. The largest single-day flows for these stablecoins in recent months occurred before the recent market sell-off, not concurrently with the IPO's roadshow.

Bitcoin and Ether did experience substantial withdrawals from exchanges on Friday, with 66,470 Bitcoin and approximately 2.49 million Ether moving to private wallets. These figures represent some of the largest single-day outflows of the year, according to CryptoQuant data. While such movements can indicate buying activity, they are characteristic of investors acquiring assets for self-custody, a standard practice for both long-term holders and new buyers. Importantly, selling activity typically involves moving assets onto exchanges, which is the reverse of what these large outflows represent.

A significant blind spot in on-chain analysis concerns transactions that occur entirely within centralized platforms. Investors using services like Robinhood or Coinbase can sell Bitcoin for U.S. dollars without the transaction ever touching a public blockchain. The true extent to which crypto holders may have funded their SpaceX IPO allocations will only become clear when these brokerages release their official trading metrics. Robinhood is expected to publish its June crypto volumes in mid-July, while Coinbase will detail retail activity in its second-quarter earnings report later in the month.

The recent outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ether Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) present a different picture. Bitcoin ETFs saw 13 consecutive sessions of outflows, totaling approximately $4.4 billion before a small inflow. Ether ETFs experienced an even longer streak of 17 sessions. These redemptions from ETFs involve the underlying cryptocurrency being sold by the fund issuer, representing a direct reduction in crypto assets held by these investment vehicles. This institutional selling is separate from the speculative retail activity potentially linked to the SpaceX IPO.

The narrative of retail traders liquidating crypto for the SpaceX IPO appears to be largely unsubstantiated by current on-chain data. While significant price movements and exchange flows occurred, they are more consistent with typical market dynamics and investor behavior rather than a mass shift towards IPO investments. The full picture of retail involvement will emerge when data from centralized exchanges becomes available.

Source: CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/06/are-retail-traders-selling-their-bitcoin-to-buy-the-spacex-ipo